Theory of Peak Oil

I entitled the subject line to this post “Theory of Peak Oil”, although it is also (and to a lesser degree) on the subject of ‘public media politics’. In that vein (as a prerequisite to a discussion of peak oil, if at all possible, I would recommend watching this first: Long URL (“Manufacturing Consent”, 1992)

“…This 1992 documentary explores the political life and ideas of Noam Chomsky, a world-renowned linguist, intellectual and political activist. Chomsky illustrates how the media tacitly manipulates public opinion to further the agendas of the powerful. A compelling examination of the suppression of news about the U.S.-supported Indonesian invasion and subjugation of East Timor brings home the point.” (Netflix description) – includes clips with Jean Piaget, Michel Foucault, etc.

The production quality of the above video is horrible (even if you rent it from Netflix, you can tell the budget was not flashy), but the words and ideas discussed, of how the media ‘machine’ serves the interest of the elite few, brought back strong memories for me of the Marxist ‘class struggle’ particularly in how “The income of the capitalists … is based on their exploitation of the workers (proletariat).” – (from wikipedia)

Once you have seen and understood the above, then the next video (below) no longer seems so ‘crazy’. However, it is also important to be able to discriminate between the ideas of ‘peak oil’, and the related discussion of politics and war in the middle east, which are typically labeled “conspiracy theories” by some constituencies. Peak Oil, like any good scientific theory, can and most assuredly will one day be proven quantitatively correct or incorrect to some degree of satisfaction. The less physical claims regarding socio-political motivations and the powerful effects of media over public opinion, are less verifiable, and therefore much more controversial.

Here is the video on peak oil, and related conspiracy theories (involving Middle East politics, and media coverage): Another really long URL (“Oil, Smoke, & Mirrors”, 2006)

IQ and SES

Some interesting quotes and materials with minimal comments from myself. Enjoy…


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_intelligence

“The modern controversy surrounding intelligence and race focuses on the results of IQ studies conducted during the 20th century, mainly in the

United States and some other industrialized nations. In almost every testing situation where tests were administered and evaluated correctly, the mean IQ of Blacks was approximately one standard deviation below that of Whites.”


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_and_the_Wealth_of_Nations

duh

“The central thesis of IQ and the Wealth of Nations is that the average IQ of a nation correlates with its GDP. Above is a scatterplot with Lynn and Vanhanen’s calculated IQ values (without estimates) and GDP data.”


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/twins/twins2.htm

“To have any statistical validity, such studies must examine thousands of twin pairs. But enough studies have been done to show that identical twins are roughly 85 percent similar for IQ, fraternal twins about 60 percent. Crunching the numbers, behavior geneticists say about half the variation in IQ, whether among twins or non-twins, may be due to genes.”


http://www.txtwriter.com/Onscience/Articles/intelligence.html

“The heritability of I.Q. was different in different environments! The influence of genes on I.Q. was far less in conditions of poverty, where environmental limitations seem to block the expression of genetic potential. Specifically, for families of high socioeconomic status, H = 0.72, much as reported in previous studies, but for families raised in poverty, H = 0.10. The lower a child’s socioeconomic status, the less impact genes had on I.Q.”


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Darwinism

Darwin felt that “social instincts” such as “sympathy” and “moral sentiments” also evolved through natural selection, and that these resulted in the strengthening of societies in which they occurred, so much so that he wrote about it in Descent of Man: “..at some future period, not very distant as measured by centuries, the civilised races of man will almost certainly exterminate, and replace, the savage races throughout the world.”…In Galton’s view, social institutions such as welfare and insane asylums were allowing “inferior” humans to survive and reproduce at levels faster than the more “superior” humans in respectable society, and if corrections were not soon taken, society would be awash with “inferiors.” …

Some economic critics of social Darwinism point to David Ricardo’s comparative advantage and claim that weaker members of society are valuable even if the stronger members are better at doing everything. However, social Darwinism does not necessarily assert the latter. Comparative advantage relies on the idea that trade and cooperation are more important than pure competitiveness, which might inhibit trade by erecting protective barriers.…Nietzsche thought that, in specific cases, sickness was necessary and even helpful.

Thus, he wrote:Wherever progress is to ensue, deviating natures are of greatest importance. Every progress of the whole must be preceded by a partial weakening. The strongest natures retain the type, the weaker ones help to advance it. Something similar also happens in the individual. There is rarely a degeneration, a truncation, or even a vice or any physical or moral loss without an advantage somewhere else. In a warlike and restless clan, for example, the sicklier man may have occasion to be alone, and may therefore become quieter and wiser; the one-eyed man will have one eye the stronger; the blind man will see deeper inwardly, and certainly hear better. To this extent, the famous theory of the survival of the fittest does not seem to me to be the only viewpoint from which to explain the progress of strengthening of a man or of a race


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_diversity

Genetic diversity is a characteristic of ecosystems and gene pools that describes an attribute which is commonly held to be advantageous for survival — that there are many different versions of otherwise similar organisms. For example, the Irish potato famine can be attributed in part to the fact that the genetic distance of all potatoes in the country was very low, making it easier for one virus to infect and kill much of the crop.


JUST IMAGINE IF WE PRACTICED EUGENICS. How long would it be, before chromosomal crossing would no longer provide for any possible offspring with immunities to certain diseases? For an example of this, merely read about tribal peoples who have had little gene pool flux with the larger human community for hundreds of years, and how their immunity faired.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States

There are numerous perceived direct and indirect causes of poverty in the United States. They include:

  • The conservative Heritage Foundation speculates that immigration increases job competition among low wage earners, both native and foreign born. Additionally many first generation immigrants, namely those without a high school diploma, are also living in poverty themselves.
  • Unfavorable economic conditions
  • Mental illness and disability
  • Lack of educational attainment and skill
  • Substance abuse
  • Birth of a child
  • Domestic abuse
  • Natural or other disasters
  • Crime
  • A survey done by Michigan State University found that a slight majority of American households with annual incomes of $70,000 or more believed that the two principal problems of poverty are lack of work ethic and a minimum wage that is too low.
  • Institutional racism: The gross disparities among impoverished people in the United States along racial lines have led many to believe that historic and/or ongoing institutional racism is responsible for much of the poverty in the United States today.
  • Limited job opportunities appear to exist for significant subgroups of some races and ethnic groups. This is reflected by the low-income nature of large sections of the economy, as divided along racial/ethnic lines: 21% of all children in the United States live in poverty, but 46% of African American children and 40% of Latino children live in poverty.
  • Region. Many rural areas, especially in the South and Appalachia have a high poverty rate due to limited job opportunities, historical issues, and sometimes resistance to change, among other things.

SUMMING UP ALL THE ABOVE, REGARDLESS OF WHICH CAUSE IS CORRECT

(IN OTHER WORDS: TIME AND CHANCE HAPPENETH TO THEM ALL)

I would guess that a very small minority of those born super-rich die in poverty, and that a very small minority of those born in poverty die super-rich. For the most part, it is mere time and chance (the circumstances of who you are born to, in what type of SES status, neighborhood, and geographic region, which determines if you live your whole life in poverty.AND WE ALREADY KNOW, from the above discussion that it is a vicious cycle: SES status has a strong influence on IQ, and that your earning potential (and ability to escape poverty) is STRONGLY related to IQ. Those with similar SES status, and who live in near proximity (same type neighborhood, geography, etc.) are more likely to reproduce offspring with each other. That also locks in the genetic components of IQ. All of these factors combine to virtually lock people into poverty.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laissez-faire

Laissez-faire “is a French phrase meaning “let do” or “hands off”. From the French diction first used by the 18th century physiocrats as an injunction against government interference with trade, it became used as a synonym for strict free market economics during the early and mid-19th century. It is generally understood to be a doctrine that maintains that private initiative and production are best allowed to roam free, opposing economic interventionism and taxation by the state beyond that which is perceived to be necessary to maintain peace, security, and property rights. In this view, it is not the job of the state to intervene in the economy in an attempt to reduce inequality, poverty or protect worker’s rights (except to the extent that they are covered under property rights).IS THIS THE ANSWER TO POVERTY?

History of Multitouch HCI Paradigm Adoption (Part 1 of …)

I’ve been following the new HCI Paradigm called “Multi-Touch” for some time now (since early 2006). I want to document my thoughts on this shift in computing, to see if my predictions come true, and that it radically impacts the field of computing over the next decade. I’ll start by merely pasting in below, some of my prior emails on the subject, with links to the things I was finding (I have removed the email addresses and names of everyone except myself of course):

Update:

From: Richardson, Paul
Sent: Wednesday, September 26, 2007 8:25 AM
To:
Subject: RE: Surface expected to be released by commercial partners in November 2007
http://www.microsoft.com/surface/Available this November at $5,000 to $10,000 per unit   In 3-5 years they project consumer price ranges.I would be very surprised if Apple doesn’t beat them to that.  I’ve seen patent applications from Apple for laptop models which are very cool, and lest we not forget, the iPhone is already consumer level and was the first to make “finger” multi-touch ubiquitous on consumer devices.———————————————–

From: Richardson, Paul
Sent: Friday, June 29, 2007 11:17 AM
Subject: RE: UPDATE: Multi-Touch Touchscreens

Greetings,

UPDATE: We now have the first windows phone with a touchscreen (called the HTC Touch SmartPhone):

(quick text review) Really Long URL
(video demo) http://www.phonescoop.com/articles/htc_touch/

Note that the OS (windows mobile 6) is the same. The touch capabilities are merely an application that rests on top of the OS. This difference is important. The iPhone is an operating system custom tailored AROUND the idea of multi-touch (sort-of). Not only is the HTC Touch an extremely limited version of touch screen capabilities, it is NOT multi-touch.

The NEW PARADIGM of human device interfaces, which multi-touch provisions for, is that there are no “input” devices, just humans acting directly on data, using their own bodies and sound. Some prokaryotic creatures may only have one digit > humans have more.

Regards,
Paul

————————————————

From: Richardson, Paul
Sent: Monday, June 11, 2007 8:49 AM
Subject: UPDATE: Multi-Touch Touchscreens

For over a year now, I’ve been tracking the progress on ‘multi-touch’ capabilities (you may recall my prior email below). Not being chained to a stylus or some other tool, but rather, your finger is a big plus, but using two or more fingers, on a smartscreen?— priceless. This opens up lots of possibilities in scientific and design fields.

Here is the link to the Microsoft video I mentioned before: http://www.majornelson.com/archive/2007/05/29/announcing-microsoft-surface.aspx

MY OPINION: Surprise. Microsoft is finally getting on the bandwagon. Of course, rather than spend a billion dollars on making multi-touch affordable, and part of the next operating system, it looks like they are sequestering it to expensive coffee tables >> which doesn’t bode well for it’s perception as viability in the minds of VCs.

Regards,
Paul

————————————————

From: Richardson, Paul
Sent: Wednesday, March 21, 2007 9:36 PM
Subject: Multi-Touch Touchscreens

Greetings my friend,

About a year ago (Sent: Tuesday, March 07, 2006 10:25 PM), right after TED ‘06, I (Paul Richardson) sent out an email to nearly all my techie friends, about the new multi-touch technology show-cased there. It is so remarkably close to the “special effects” of movie magic such as in ‘Minority Report’ by Tom Cruise, that I was really blown away. In that email I predicted that it multi-touch would be ubiquitous on tablet PCs everywhere very soon (probably within 5 to 10 years): “Play with OneNote on a sweet tablet, and dream, nay I say, merely place your bets when this (or some derivative) will be everywhere.”

I am going to be tracking this closely. I love my Tablet PC, and though it’s clunky and slow and awkward (just like PC’s were before the X86 days), I know enough about HCI that I am confident that multi-touch is on the absolute verge of becoming accessible on a whole new generation of tablet PCs. IT workers often chuckle at the gullibility of the public when watching movies like ‘The NET’, ‘Firewall’ and ‘Swordfish’. That is why when something truly remarkably different, which is a giant leap forward, and represents a turning point (like the tablet PC itself) comes along, those who understand the old-fashioned idea of a hacker, who enjoys hacking all kinds of gadgets, get excited. We can wait to get to touch it, play with it, and test it.

Apple BOUGHT FingerWorks. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Apple is going to one day unveil a full-size touchscreen device (Microsoft’s currently unchallenged domain in consumer tablets). By moving to a Unix based kernel (FreeBSD) Apple sent a clear message with Darwin: Not only do they want Neo-Luddites and artists, they now want hard-core IT people (they got the other far tail of the bell curve). Next, by moving to the Intel CPU, Apple is now targeting the vast middle 2 standard deviations, who just use computing as an means to an end (but never an end in itself). What will be next? Perhaps their current OWNERSHIP of the patents and technology created by FingerWorks (which can be seen in the new iPhone) are some clue to a forthcoming full-size multi-touch device within the next few years?

Regards,
Paul

———————————————————————————————

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-touch

Multi-touch is the name of a human-computer interaction (HCI) technique and the hardware devices that implement it. It is a kind of touch screen or touch tablet / touchpad that recognizes multiple simultaneous touch points, frequently including the pressure or degree of each independently, as well as position. This allows gestures and interaction with multiple fingers or hands, chording, and can provide rich interaction, including direct manipulation, through intuitive gestures. Depending largely on their size, some multi-touch devices support more than one user on the same device simultaneously. One salient aspect of this technique is that it makes easy to zoom in or out in a Zooming User Interface with two fingers, for example, thereby providing a more direct mapping than with a single-point device like a mouse or stylus.

FingerWorks produced a line of keyboards that incorporated multi-touch gestures. FingerWorks has since been purchased by Apple, who has incorporated the technology into its iPhone. The firm Tactex Controls is one supplier of multi-touch pads.

———————————————————————————————–
Use of gesture for HCI is admittedly infantile still: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVQrhsjOlwU&mode=related&search=
———————————————————————————————–
The Apple iPhone is a big leap forward. The video is rather long (about 1 hr, I guess??), and it’s also rather boring and slow in places, so pick something you can do at the same time (like I did, watch TV at the same time in bed, ha ha!). Check it out, http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/mwsf07/

Here is an ULTRA-SHORT version of SOME of the features: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgW7or1TuFk
———————————————————————————————
Imagination is the ONLY limit to the use of Multi-touch:

Longer, better version:
http://infosthetics.com/archives/2007/01/jeff_han_multi-touch_display_demo_applications.html

Includes some discussion by Researcher:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLhMVNdplJc&mode=related&search=

Shorter version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp-y3ZNaCqs
———————————————————————————————
New Type of KIOSK?: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiuwMe4QpBQ&mode=related&search=
———————————————————————————————
Make Dinner or Any Table Surface more Interesting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaKehq6qsdY&mode=related&search=
———————————————————————————————
Make window shopping Interactive: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1-w7maL36k&mode=related&search=
———————————————————————————————
Hackers are building their own versions NOW! (on Linux): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQkSObRtw0o&mode=related&search=
———————————————————————————————
Now you don’t need a keyboard, just type on the virtual keyboard:
http://techzoogle.com/the-canovo-dual-touchscreen-notebook/

cool!

very cool!

IQ and Common Sense

Below are some links and info regarding two people, who at various times, have been proclaimed to have the highest measured and documented IQ in the world, that we know of. Both of these folks seem to have real good common sense. They do not seem to be “geeks”, in the classic sense applied to the image of the nerd walking around like a klutz, somewhat clueless socially, or handicapped in some other basic human ability.


The below dude was (for a long time) a professional bouncer at a bar, and is (one of the) smartest humans in world:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Michael_Langan

smarty

 3-part series of interviews with Mr. Langan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ak5Lr3qkW0


Since 1986, Marilyn has been writing the “Ask Marilyn” question-and-answer column for Parade, the Sunday magazine distributed by 379 newspapers, with a circulation of 34 million and a readership of 79 million, the largest periodical in the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marilyn_vos_Savant

Marilyn vos Savant

Her personal ‘official’ website: http://www.marilynvossavant.com/bio.html


I’ve had some interest in geniuses for a long time. I’ve known a small handful in my life, once or twice become very acquainted with them. In my experience, they are no more susceptible to emotional harm than the average person. If they are ostrasized and persecuted as children (or teens) for being “different”, and if they do not have a fantastic support system at home or otherwise, then they will be no more or less likely to have the same kinds of problems any other person would have, if they went through those same circumstances, perhaps for some other reason (such as being different by some physical attribute).


Here’s an interesting quote: “They say that a 30-point difference in IQ is critical to communication. If you have an IQ of more then 30 points in excess of the person to whom you are speaking, that person may not understand a large amount of what you are saying.” (taken from: LongURL on Aug. 3rd, 2007).


Of course, it also will really “hurt” your ability to communicate with another person if they cannot connect with you emotionally, because you are in your own bubble of arrogance, ego, and condescension.

 

40 Gigs (Gbps) BW Fiber at home

I’m sure most IT folks have heard about this dude who hooked up a 40 Gbps fiber internet connection at his mom’s house. (for the CNN version of the story look here; http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/07/20/superfast.net.ap/index.html)

Here are the “Facts” being reported:

  • Speed 40 GBPS w/new modulation technique over fiber
  • Routers 1,240 miles apart, no intervening transponders
  • Karlstad Stadsnät (local council’s network arm & owner of Network)
  • Hafsteinn Jonsson (Mgr & network boss)
  • Sigbritt Lothberg (mother of cisco engineer, Swedish internet legend)
  • Peter Löthberg (cisco engineer)
  • Karlstad Sweden (location)

Please let me know if anyone find out some explanation of how this new modulation technique works.

I wonder if this guy has been reading stuff like this?

http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/7158289-description.html

(Long URL, to another interesting paper)